本傑明·富爾福德2015年6月9日訊息 7國集團無助的面臨破產

The leaders of the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations or G7 are holding an emergency meeting in Germany in a futile attempt to avoid their inevitable bankruptcy. The leaders talk about Greece, the Ukraine, China, the Middle East and other matters as if somehow they are still in control. The leaders need to understand that there is a thing out there called reality and, no matter how long you try to avoid it, it has a way of catching up to you.
 
7國集團,或者說G7國家領導人,正在德國召開​​一場緊急會議,徒勞的試圖去避免它們的破產。各國領導們​​討論著關於希臘丶烏克蘭丶中國丶中東丶以及其它事項,就好像他們依然在掌權似的。這些領導人們需要明白,有一種東西叫做現實,並且無論你如何去避免它,它都會有辦法追上你。
 
 
The fact is that, with the exceptions of Canada, Japan and Germany, the G7 nations and their allied Western states have been running a deficit with the rest of the world for the past 40 years. The elephant in the room that nobody talks about is the fact the biggest debtor of all is the Corporate United States.
 
事實上,除了加拿大丶日本和德國,7國集團和他們的西方盟國,早已經在過去40年裡,對世界其它國家欠下了巨額赤字。最為熟視無睹的事實就是,在所有債務國當中,最大的就是美國企業政府。
 
 
The rest of the world has made a collective decision to stop financing these Western governments until they stop their constant war-mongering and resource stealing. Since the rest of the world controls most of the real money (ie money connected to physical objects) they control the underlying reality. You can eat bread but you cannot eat derivati​​ves or dollar bills.
 
國際社會已經做出了一個集體決定,去停止資助這些西方政府,直到他們停止他們不斷的戰爭販子行為,以及資源竊取行為。既然國際社會控制著大部分的誠實貨幣(即:有實物資產作為抵押支撐的貨幣),那麽他們就控制著基礎的現實世界。你可以把麵包當飯吃,但是你不能把金融衍生品和美鈔當飯吃。
 
 
You can trade real things like cars or oil for rice or wheat but if you lose trust, nobody will tr​​ade your IOUs for real things. The G7 countries, especially the Corporate United States (as opposed to the Republic of the United States), have managed to postpone the inevitable with fraudulent economic data, offshore slush funds, and derivati​​ves theoretically worth astronomical amounts.
 
你可以用真實的貨物,像汽車或者石油來換取大米和小麥,但是如果你失去了信用,那麽就將沒有人會用實物商品來換取你的白條。7國集團,特別是美國企業政府(與美利堅共和國相反),已經在設法去用欺詐性的經濟數據丶海外行賄基金丶以及理論上價值天文數字的金融衍生品,來拖延不可避免的破產。
 
 
However, no amount of zeroes added to astronomical numbers inside Western banks will make any difference so long as these zeroes have no connection to the real world.
 
然而,只要西方銀行當中的錢款並不與現實世界相關聯,那麽無論這些錢款數額後邊有多少個零,都無濟於事。
 
 
The Chinese have insisted on payment in things, like gold, that actually exist. The American corporate government has, like a once rich junky fallen on hard times, pawned family heirlooms, borrowed from friends, stolen and lied so far to get its next fix of debt. They have stolen Iraqi oil, African gold, Japanese savings and everything else they could get their hands on.
 
中國人已經堅持要求用黃金等實際存在的東西來作為支付手段。美國企業政府到目前為止,已經像一個曾經一度闊綽過的癮君子,突然陷入艱難時期一般,傾家蕩產丶從朋友那裡借丶偷和騙,來為它的債務拆東牆補西牆。他們已經偷取了伊拉克的石油丶阿富汗的黃金丶日本的黃金丶以及他們所能染指的每一件東西。
 
 
However, since real US GDP has shrunk by 21.4% since 2011, it is becoming impossible for the US Corporate government to keep paying its snowballing debts. The obvious answer is to declare bankruptcy.
 
然而,既然自從2011年以來,美國真實的國內生產總值已經縮水了21.4%,那麽美國企業政府想要保持償還它那滾雪球般的債務,正在變得不可能。明顯的答案就是宣布破產。
 
 
The problem is that very few people are alive today who remember the last time a European country went bankrupt. No Anglo Saxon country has gone bankrupt for a thousand years so the Americans are even less familiar with what bankruptcy really entails.
 
問題是,那些曾經經歷過上一次歐洲國家破產的人,只有非常少的人依然健在。幾千年來從沒有盎格魯·撒克遜國家破產過,所以美國人甚至對破產是什麽都不熟悉。
 
 
For those of us who witnessed firsthand such things as the collapse of the Japanese bubble and the bankruptcy of Argentina the future is easier to see.
 
對於我們這些親眼見證了日本泡沫經濟崩潰和阿根廷破產的人來說,未來很容易看清。
 
 
Let us compare these two cases to what is happening to the G7 in order to predict the future.
 
讓我們在這兩個案例和7國集團正在發生的事情之間,進行一下對比,以便預測一下未來。
 
 
In the case of Japan, the bubble burst in the years 1990-1992. The Japanese government knew as early as 1992 the bad debt total was 200 trillion yen (about $2 trillion). However, public announcements then put it at only 3 or 4 trillion yen. Company A would pass on its bad debt to company B who would pass it on to company C, each with a different accounting deadline. It was like an individual using their American Express card to pay their Visa bill and then using the Visa to pay for their MasterCard and then use their MasterCard to pay off American Express. This scam bought time.
 
在日本的案例當中,泡沫經濟是在1990-1992年間破裂的。早在1992年,日本政府就心知肚明總壞賬已經達到200萬億日元了(2萬億美元)。然而,對外公佈卻說只有3到4萬億日圓。A公司會把它的壞賬轉嫁給B公司,B公司再轉嫁給C公司,每家公司都有不同的會計最後期限。那就像是一個人,用他的美國運通卡來還信用卡賬單,然後用信用卡來還萬事達卡,然後用萬事達卡來還美國運通卡。這種騙局爭取了一定的時間。
 
 
Eventually though, a few of the worst companies were no longer able to hide their bankruptcy. I remember interviewing Kichinosuke Sasaki, president of the Togensha, one of those companies, in the late 1990’s. He was then the poorest man in the world with a net worth of minus 9 trillion yen (roughly minus $90 billion). He was wearing a silk suit that must have cost him tens of thousands of dollars when he originally bought it but it was pretty threadbare and shabby when I interviewed him.
 
最終,一小部分最差勁的公司不再能夠隱藏他們的破產了。我記得曾經在1990年末,採訪過東電社公司的總裁佐佐木之助。後來他由於欠下價值負9萬億日圓(大約負9億美元)的債務,而成為了世界上最窮的人。他曾經穿著一套,當初買下來的時候,價格絕對不低於數万美元的絲綢西裝,但是當我採訪他的時候,那套西裝卻看起來相當破舊而又俗套。
 
 
He told me he the bankers were keeping him half-alive on a miserable allowance. The bankers would not let him declare bankruptcy because that would have triggered a domino effect that would inevitably lead to the biggest Japanese banks.
 
他告訴我說,銀行家們只給他發放可憐的津貼,來讓他苟延殘喘的活著。銀行家們不會允許他宣布破產,因為那將會觸發多米諾骨牌效應,不可避免的倒向日本最大的銀行。
 
 
In the case of Europe, Greece is playing the role of Togensha. If Greece is allowed to go bankrupt then big European banks will have to declare their Greek debt in default and thus be forced to admit they are also in default. No wonder the top managers of outfits like Deutschebank keep resigning. Nobody wants to be the captain of a sinking ship.
 
在歐洲的案例當中,希臘正在扮演著日本東電社公司那樣的角色。如果希臘被允許破產,那麽歐洲的大銀行們將不得不宣布他們的希臘債務違約,並且由此被迫承認他們自己也違約。毫無疑問,像德意志銀行這種機構的頂級管理層將會持續辭職。沒有人會想要當一艘快要沉的船的船長。
 
 
However, the Japanese experience with the bubble makes it very clear that postponing the inevitable just increases the total pain. The Greeks already know this because they are being forced to play the role of Mr. Sasaki, and be squeezed of everything they have so their bankers can pretend all is well. Average Greek income has fallen 40% in the past five years so that bankers can pretend they are solvent. It will only get worse until Greece declares bankruptcy.
 
然而,日本人所經歷的泡沫經濟破裂,非常清楚的說明,如果短痛一直被拖延,就會增加長痛的痛苦。希臘人已經知道了這一點,因為他們正在被迫去扮演佐佐木先生的角色,並且被壓榨走了他們所有的東西,所以他們的銀行家可以假裝一​​切都很好。希臘普通民眾的收入,已經在過去5年裡下降了40%,所以銀行家們可以假裝他們是有償還能力的。這種心態只會讓希臘的情況更糟,除非宣布破產。
 
 
It is much better to declare bankruptcy than to stay chained to an unpayable debt burden.
 
直接宣布破產,比保持著償還不起的債務負擔,不知道好到哪裡去了。
 
 
Bankruptcy need not be a bad thing. The first thing people need to understand is that finance is spiritual or psychological. If Greece goes bankrupt, people, buildings, factories, farms, beaches, houses etc. will not disappear. The only thing that will change is how people decide what to do in the future with these real world assets.
 
破產並不是什麽洪水猛獸。人們需要去明白的是金融只是一種精神上或心理上的東西。如果希臘破產了,人民丶建築丶工廠丶農場丶海灘丶房屋等,將不會消失。唯一將會改變的是,人民如何決定用這些現實世界的資產,去在未來做些什麽。
 
 
In the case of Argentina, as well as in the case of Iceland, declaring bankruptcy was a short sharp shock followed by a rapid rise in standards of living. The people were also freed from the clutches of parasitical bankers.
 
在阿根廷的案例當中,以及在冰島的案例當中,宣布破產是一個短暫的劇烈震盪,而隨後的卻是人民生活水平的大幅提高。人民同樣也從銀行家寄生蟲的手中重獲自由。
 
 
Of course, if Greece goes bankrupt eventually so will the rest of countries using the Euro.
 
當然,如果希臘最終走向破產,那麽使用歐元的其它國家也會紛紛效仿。
 
 
Angela Merkel recently went to China and Japan to ask for money but returned empty handed.
 
安吉拉·默克爾最近去中國和日本請求資金援助,但是卻空手而歸。
 
 
Since there is no other source of money big enough to bail out the German backed Euro, the German financial system is thus also likely to become insolvent sooner rather than later.
 
既然沒有其它足夠大的資金來源,能夠為德國人所支持的歐元解困,那麽德國人的金融系統,同樣也因此像是遲早要變得資不抵債。
 
 
The end result will be a return to the Deutschemark, the Drachma and other currencies tied to historical cultures.
 
最終的結果將會是回歸到德國馬克丶希臘德拉克馬丶以及其它的傳統貨幣上來。
 
 
Now here is something to ponder. The European Union Parliament building was deliberately built to resemble the tower of babel. You can see this visually at this link:
 
現在這裡有一些事情要思考。歐洲理事會的建築被故意設計成類似於巴別塔的造型。你可以在以下這個鏈接中看到:
 
http://deadlinelive.info/2012/11/26/fascism-rising-eus-new-tower-of-babel/
 
 
The story of the Tower of Babel was that it eventually collapsed and all the different peoples went their separate ways. The new tower of babel was completed in 1999. The question is, where there planners who knew way back then the EU project was destined to go the way of the tower of babel?
 
巴別塔故事的結尾是,最終那座塔崩塌了,並且所有不同的人們都分道揚鑣。這座新的巴別塔於1999年建成。問題是,那些規劃者何時才能浪子回頭,接受歐盟項目注定會重蹈巴別塔覆轍的事實?
 
 
來源:
http://greatascension.blogspot.tw/2015/06/201569.html
 
丁澤宇 翻譯